Over the coming decades, our technologically-stored and
transformed information will apparently continue to self-organize, in a natural
and accelerating co-evolution with us, to create systems that approach and
then greatly exceed human-level ingenuity, systems that excel at solving a
whole host of present human problems. Far too few people are telling this story, at present.
You can rely on your ASF community to be a leader in promoting dialog and
informed action on this profound transition.
Sponsors
It is a sincere privilege to announce the sponsors of
the Accelerating Change Conference 2003. Several dynamic, change-aware
organizations and individuals have lent their support to our organization,
conference, and community. We look forward to developing a strong relationship
with all of them in the coming years.
If your organization would like to participate and make
its message known, both at and after ACC2003, see our sponsorships page
for more details.
Gold Sponsor
SAP – 30 Years in the Business of Helping
Businesses Grow
12 Million Users, 60,100 Installations, 1,500 Partners,
23 Industry Solutions
Founded
in 1972, SAP is
the recognized leader in providing collaborative business solutions for all
types of industries and for every major market. Headquartered in Walldorf,
Germany, SAP is the world's largest inter-enterprise software company, and
the world's third-largest independent software supplier overall. SAP employs
over 28,900 people in more than 50 countries. Their professionals are dedicated
to providing high-level customer support and services.
SAP
has leveraged their extensive experience to deliver mySAP Business Suite,
the definitive family of business solutions for today's economy. mySAP Business
Suite allows employees, customers, and business partners to work together
successfully – anywhere, anytime. It is open and flexible, supporting databases,
applications, operating systems, and hardware from almost every major vendor.
By deploying the best technology, services, and development resources, SAP
delivers a business platform that unlocks valuable information resources,
improves supply chain efficiencies, and builds strong customer relationships;
and through SAP Corporate
Research, SAP introduces new ideas
for future solutions.
Silver Sponsors
Artificial Development
Artificial
Development (http://ad.com), Mountain View, CA is building CCortex™, a complete
20-billion neuron emulation of the Human Cortex and peripheral systems, on
a cluster of 500 computers — the largest neural network created to date.
Our mission is to bridge
the outer edges of computer science and the inner workings of the human mind
by creating more useful and intelligent computer interfaces. CCortex will
be able to perform a number of tasks previously unavailable to traditional
computing by recreating the complexity and functionality of those cortical
regions that are most likely responsible for processing higher-level functions
of human intelligence. A July 2003 start-up, Artificial Development plans
to deliver a wide range of commercial products based on artificial versions
of different parts the human brain that will enhance business relationships
globally.
KurzweilAI.net
Insightful
visions of the future from Ray Kurzweil and over 100 other "big thinkers"
come to life at KurzweilAI.net.
This
widely acclaimed megasite features the ideas, writings, and technologies of
leading visionaries who are examining the confluence of accelerating revolutions
that will shape the future and their impact on all aspects of our lives. Topics
range from current breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, pattern recognition,
electronics, computation, communications, biotechnology, robotics and virtual
reality to long-range forecasts of brain scanning, nanotechnology, life extension,
reverse-engineering the brain, and brain augmentation.
KurzweilAI.net
explores ideas from Ray Kurzweil’s latest best-selling book (formerly No.
1 in “Science” on Amazon.com), The Age of Spiritual
Machines, which focuses on exponential growth in knowledge, computation,
telecommunications, biotechnologies, miniaturization of technology, and other
revolutionary areas; and from his upcoming book, The Singularity is Near.
KurzweilAI.net’s extensive resources include a free daily newsletter, conferences,
hundreds of articles, visual glossary/idea hierarchy, interactive avatar site
guide, and bios of big thinkers.
“Famed
AI researcher Ray Kurzweil’s vast megacomplex of Singularity-related material.
Probably the largest Singularity resource on the Web, and certainly the one
with the coolest website (including the famed “Ramona” spokesbot).” –
Google
“Ray
Kurzweil has a knack for spotting the next new thing; he’s best known for
guerrilla assaults on conventional wisdom. His new website KurzweilAI.net
is a futurist’s portal where essays from big thinkers are hosted by a cybernetic
rage rocker named Ramona.” – Wired
Foresight
Institute – Preparing for Nanotechnology
Foresight
Institute's goal is to guide emerging technologies
to improve the human condition.
Foresight focuses its
efforts upon nanotechnology, the coming ability to build materials and products
with atomic precision, and upon systems that will enhance knowledge exchange
and critical discussion, thus improving public and private policy decisions.
Foresight
Institute recognizes that nanotechnology - like all pivotal technologies -
brings both potential perils and benefits. To help achieve the advantages
and avoid the dangers, Foresight's policy is to prepare for nanotechnology
by:
- promoting
understanding of nanotechnology and its effects;
- informing
the public and decision makers;
- developing
an organizational base for addressing nanotechnology-related issues and-
communicating openly about them; and,
- actively
pursuing beneficial outcomes of nanotechnology, including improved economic,
social and environmental conditions.
Nanotechnology
will allow control of the structure of matter within the broad limits set
by physical laws. Other limits will be necessary to prevent abuses by individuals,
groups and nations bent upon undesirable ends. Global competitive forces and
continuing progress in molecular sciences will lead ultimately to the realization
of nanotechnology. Foresight seeks to ensure that nanotechnology, when developed,
will be used to improve conditions in the broadest sense, rather than for
destructive or narrow purposes. Nanotechnology must be developed openly to
serve the general welfare and the continued realization of the human potential.
Draper Fisher Jurvetson – Information
Technology Venture Capital
Draper Fisher
Jurvetson is the leader in seed and early stage venture capital,
typically serving as a startup's first outside source of financing.
Founded in 1985, Draper Fisher Jurvetson has created
a global network of affiliated venture funds with approximately $3 billion
in capital commitments and offices in the major technology centers around
the world. Headquartered in Silicon Valley, the firm has proven expertise
in identifying and helping extraordinary entrepreneurs who want to change
the world.
Bronze Sponsors
Teleportec – “The Ultimate in Global
Face-to-Face Communication”
Teleportec conferencing makes it possible for you to be in two
places at once, wherever you are in the world.
Their easy to use systems digitally teleport
your image from your location to a meeting, conference or event anywhere in the world. You will appear in the room
live, life-size, within an apparent 3-dimensional environment as if you are
actually there and have eye-to-eye contact with those present. Natural
face-to-face interaction can now take place without traveling across the world,
saving your business time and money and enhancing your internal and external
communications network. This really is the closest thing to being there –
the only thing you can't do is shake hands!
With
no visible cameras or monitors, their systems are user friendly, require minimum
training, and can be installed to suit your individual requirements. The technology
is compatible with standard video conferencing equipment and can use a range
of connectivity options including ISDN, T1 and IP. Teleportec upgrades are
now also available for existing video conferencing users. Group-to-group and
multi-site communication is also possible.
Howard Bloom Video Sponsor
Charmed
Technology – Wireless Everywear
Los
Angeles-based Charmed Technology
is an MIT Media Lab spin-off and is poised to be a world leader in affordable,
wearable Internet products, services and technologies.
As
part of its strategic business plan, the company has established strategic
partnerships with companies such as CTIA Wireless I.T. & Internet 2001, Red
Herring, MIT's Media Lab, the University of Rochester Center for Future Health,
Motorola, and others. With these partners, the company is working to develop
miniaturized devices with Internet connection and powerful computer capabilities.
The Charmed Technology vision is to incorporate the unwired Internet into
fashion, lifestyle and health applications by creating inexpensive wireless
mobile devices that will allow individuals to access the World Wide Web anywhere
and anytime through wireless technology. With enabling technologies already
in place, Charmed Technology plans to completely penetrate the market, revolutionizing
the way people interact with each other through wireless Internet communications.
The unique transportal (TM) system provides multiple user access to a global
computer network.
Contributor Sponsors
Arlington Institute
The
Arlington Institute is an internationally respected non-profit research
organization that specializes in thinking about global futures in order to
influence rapid, positive change.
Arlington believes that we are living
in an era of global transition, to a degree that our species has never seen
before. We have made it our mission to help facilitate this transition and
to connect and associate with like-minded people so that together we may embrace
the opportunities of this future. Arlington encourages systemic, non-linear
approaches to planning and believes that effective thinking about the future
is enhanced by applying newly emerging technology. To that end, one of Arlington's
major projects is developing a revolutionary new information system designed
to track global trends and anticipate surprises. In the broadest sense, we
help leadership from all sectors chart the most direct course to preferred
futures.
Global Vision Consulting Ltd.
Global
Vision Consulting Ltd. helps
organizations understand and respond effectively to the challenges of change.
Fierce competition and traumatic shifts
in the business environment have triggered a "Red Queen" response in the economy,
with companies innovating and adapting continuously in order to survive. The
cycle of change frequently appears to be spinning out of control, in a quickening
exchange of thrust and counter-thrust. In such a turbulent environment, reaction time is critical.
Companies must be more adept than ever in sizing up competitive dynamics,
choosing a strategy, recreating their business model, and implementing rapid
change. Execution is key, since they must mobilize their resources again and
again to implement repeated transformational change, in a never-ending and
ever-accelerating cycle.
Global Vision helps organizations understand the forces
of change and uses scenarios to clarify their options. We help clients refine
their business model and create actionable strategies. We use outcome mapping
to create transformational change programs that integrate all of the required
initiatives, aligned with corporate strategy – creating a laser-sharp focus
on strategic outcomes, and managing these outcomes to ensure that the desired
strategic objectives are actually being achieved. Creating such a coherent,
integrated and manageable plan of action dramatically increases an organization’s
success in implementing strategy-driven change.
Our principals have worked throughout North America and
internationally with leading private sector, public sector, and non-profit
organizations. The majority of these clients – whether business start-ups,
companies in deregulated industries, government agencies, or industry leaders
– are confronting the formidable challenges of accelerating change.
iQ
Company
iQ Company powers Predict Wall Street, the collective
intelligence engine generating financial information for the future.
Predict
Wall Street’s patent-pending technology allow investors to exchange individual
information for qualified group forecasts in real-time. Through independent
trials in 2000, 2002 and 2003, investments based on system information consistently
outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500.
To discover tomorrow’s prices today, visit http://www.predictwallstreet.com.
Korns & Associates
Korns Associates is a privately held R&D company that develops and uses
sophisticated agent technology to build artificial intelligence applications
for securities analysis and stock ranking.
They were founded in June 1993, and have
engaged in continuous software research and development of securities analysis
software. To learn more about the commercial applications of their technology,
visit http://www.investbyagent.com. InvestByAgent is now the exclusive commercial representative
for all Korns Associates research.
Media Sponsors
Association of Professional Futurists
The
Association of Professional Futurists (APF) is a thriving community committed to professional
excellence in applied futures/foresight.
The purpose of the Association is to elevate
professional futurists, their work, and the futures field and to serve the
professional needs of its members. The APF is professionalizing the field
by providing members with networking and professional development opportunities,
and educating consumers about the value of integrating a futures dimension
into their endeavors.
Membership is comprised of three levels: Full, Provisional and Student. Full
members must qualify according to rigorous criteria. Provisional and Student
level are aspirational with most members seeking to eventually fulfill the
requirements for Full membership. Services include a website providing timely
and actionable intelligence to members, a listserve that fosters debate on
important issues relevant to the profession, an online member directory, communities
of practice, and intense conferences. Initiated
in 2002, the APF has 100 members from the corporate sector, the consulting
arena, academia and government. Its members live and work globally.
Betterhumans
Connecting
people to the future so that they can create it, Betterhumans explores and advocates
the use of science and technology for furthering human progress.
Betterhumans
produces accessible editorial that helps people achieve a full awareness of
issues and developments affecting the future, licenses its editorial for syndication
in order to reach the broadest possible audience, runs an online portal for
forward-thinking people at Betterhumans.com, connects advertisers with its
Betterhumans.com audience so that they can market relevant products and services
and organizes and promotes events to support the growing community of people
who are creating the future.
Futurist.com
Futurist.com is professional speaking and consulting
company owned by Glen Hiemstra.
The web site is designed to acquaint
you with Hiemstra’s services. These services include keynote presentations, seminars, long-range
planning retreats and consultation, and scenario planning. All of what Hiemstra
does is focused in one way or another on the development of the preferred
future. Since 1980, Hiemstra has assisted hundreds of private, public and
non-profit enterprises in thinking about and planning for the long-term future. The
web site offers information about his programs and presentations, speaking
schedule, and the projects, interviews, CD’s, books, and articles that he
is currently involved with.
At
the same time, Futurist.com is intended to be much more than a publicity brochure.
They are also a Portal to the Future, a website focused on the dissemination
of information about the future and how to create it. They provide information
about many future related topics, and add to this information all the time.
Most of the information is at the introductory level and provides an overview
of a subject and some useful links. Their commitment is to a greater understanding of and enthusiasm
about the future and future-related subjects. Their audience is global – one
of the great features of the World Wide Web.
The
Futurist
THE
FUTURIST is a bi-monthly magazine published since 1967 by the World Future
Society and is a principal benefit of membership, read by 30,000 members worldwide.
Edited by Edward Cornish,
president of the World Future Society, THE FUTURIST takes no stand on what
the future will or should be like. The magazine strives to serve as a neutral
clearinghouse of ideas. Each article and department item includes the name
and address of an author or source to contact for more information and expand
your network.
Each issue contains feature
articles written by outstanding experts in a wide range of fields: business,
creativity, education, economics, environment and resources, values, and more.
In addition, several departments offer shorter news briefs, book reviews,
and other items of interest from a variety of sources. Among the many influential
futurists and experts who have contributed to THE FUTURIST include: Gene Roddenberry,
Newt Gingrich, Al Gore, Alvin and Heidi Toffler, Buckminster Fuller, Frederik
Pohl, Isaac Asimov, Margaret Mead, Robert McNamara, B.F. Skinner, Nicholas
Negroponte, and Arthur C. Clarke.
Generation5
Generation5 has aimed to be at the forefront of Artificial Intelligence
since its inception in 1998.
Community-oriented, Generation5 deals
with all AI topics, including robotics, neural networks, genetic algorithms,
AI programming, philosophy, cognitive science, home automation, and much more.
Generation5 serves over 350,000 page-views a month and contains hundreds of
articles, interviews and reviews of the latest AI software, robotics kits,
games and books.
Innovation Watch
InnovationWatch.com was launched by David Forrest in 2001 as a creative experiment – to start an online
conversation with those who are thinking deeply about cosmic origins and evolution,
the emergence of consciousness, the human journey, and the accelerating forces
of change.
The
website draws on the concepts of complex systems science to explore these
subjects, and to speculate on the future that is emerging from the deep dynamics of a creative universe in continuous change. While founded
on these underlying concepts, Innovation Watch focuses squarely on the issues
of today – examining the forces of change; following developments in science,
technology, business, society, and the environment; and assessing their implications
for the future.
Innovation
Watch provides links to material on emerging trends, and identifies developments that could destabilize the status quo and produce sudden,
unexpected and discontinuous change. It includes links to scenarios showing how the forces of change could combine in different
ways to tip the future in very different directions.
The
website provides news feeds; links to weblogs; book reviews; announcements; commentaries; and resources of interest to futurists, consultants,
researchers, and others who are seeking to understand the forces of change
and where they may be taking us. Visitors can subscribe to a newsletter that reports on new developments in several carefully
selected disciplines. A special business section – Enterprise Ecology
– provides resources for leaders who must cope with the unprecedented competitive
pressures, instabilities, and discontinuities that are now being created by
accelerating change.
INTELLIGENCE – The Future of Computing
INTELLIGENCE, published monthly since May, 1984, was the third newsletter
to appear covering AI (artificial intelligence) and robotics, and was the
first publication to report on commercial and research trends and developments
in neural networks.
Beginning
in 1992, INTELLIGENCE initiated a monthly column covering nanotechnology as
well as nanotechnology-related developments in computing and electronics (e.g.,
molecular computing and quantum computing). In 1993, INTELLIGENCE began a
monthly column reporting on the Internet.
Current topics covered in INTELLIGENCE include: acceleration, chips, code,
convergence, design, display, DNA & RNA computing, hardware, interface, invisibility,
molecular computing, nanotechnology, nets & grids, neural nets, pattern recognition,
power, privacy, property/IP, quantum computing, robots, simulation, software,
standards, storage, telephony, and wireless communications. INTELLIGENCE,
PO Box 20008, NY, NY 10025-1510; (212) 222-1123; i@eintelligence.com.
Nanotechnology Now
Nanotechnology Now has been created to serve the information needs of everyone
in the business, academic, and public communities – to become the most
informative and current free collection of Nanospace material.
Nanotechnology Now covers related future sciences, issues,
news, events, and general information. Very much like a White Paper, they
seek to provide a forum and format that helps clarify nanotechnology and nanoscale
sciences to laypersons, general business persons, non-specialists, highly
skilled technicians, professionals and academics. Other goals are: to provide
an introduction to these new technologies; to describe the basics of technical,
business, and social issues; to educate the general reader; and to contain
in one site all relevant information, and/or links, for free.
Their
most basic intentions are to stimulate public debate, and to provide the most
logical option for people to choose for information regarding Future Sciences such as nanotechnology (a.k.a.
molecular nanotechnology), MEMS (microelectromechanical systems), NEMS (nanoelectromechanical
systems), nanobiotechnology, nanoelectronics, nanofabrication, computational
nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, extropianism, transhumanism, and
the Singularity.
Plausible Futures Newsletter
The
Plausible
Futures Newsletter is a news service
for the future studies community edited by independent researcher Ole Peter
Galaasen.
The
initial idea behind Plausible Futures was to use the internet to collect and
present news and analysis on different management topics. Throughout the years
the site has grown in complexity and the coverage today spans diverse science
and humanistic topics. The objective of Plausible Futures is to help organizations
and individuals discern the news and background information available on the
internet related to the future. The key topics include: new technology, management
theory, and long term (large scale) social change.
Research Services — Plausible
Futures supports organizations in research for strategic thinking and environmental
scanning. Information processing for clients within special industrial sectors
can be done externally or entirely off-shore through electronic collaboration
or in-house and integrated with existing research staff.
Advertising — Plausible
Futures has an increasing amount of users from all over the world – approx.
10,000 visit the site each month. The subscribers of the email newsletter
represent international corporations, universities and governments. Advertising
opportunities include advertising your book, seminar, conference, product,
or company.
Small Times Media
Small Times Media is the leading source of business news and information
about the small tech industry, which includes nanotechnology, MEMS and microsystems.
The company offers full news coverage
through its bimonthly magazine, daily news Web site, and weekly e-newsletter.
Small
Times® Magazine — Small Times is free to qualified individuals in the U.S. and Canada.
It details technological advances, applications and investment opportunities
to help business leaders stay informed about this rapidly changing business.
http://www.smalltimes.com/subscription.
Smalltimes.com — Smalltimes.com provides daily small tech news coverage from around
the world, including breaking news, in-depth analysis and patent listings.
Additional Products —
- Small
Tech Business Directory™ guide. This guide to small tech organizations
and service providers is published yearly and distributed free to Small
Times® subscribers. Be sure your company is included; complete Small
Tech Census™ at http://www.smalltechcensus.com.
Basic listings are free.
- Custom
research. Provided on demand for companies and government agencies,
research is based on Small Tech Census™ data, which built the most
extensive and accurate database in the industry.
- Small
Tech Advantage. This daily paid news service collects, analyzes and
categorizes small tech stories from around the world. Summaries are delivered
via daily e-mail. http://www.smalltechadvantage.com.
- Small
Tech 101™ primer series. Small Tech 101: An Introduction to Micro and
Nanotechnology & Small Tech 101: A Business and Investor’s Guide
to Micro and Nanotechnology are available at http://www.smalltimes.com/smalltech101.
- Special
Ad sections. These highlight companies, technologies or regions.
For
more information, contact STM Marketing Director Kelli Felker at kellifelker@smalltimes.com or 734.528.6263.
The
ASF Community
Finally,
thank you to all the individuals who have helped ASF become the vibrant network
of thinkers and doers that it is today.
A
special thanks to Lisa Tansey, the first individual sponsor of ASF's
conference activities in early 2003, for believing in our vision and sharing
our values. Too many others have given aid to mention at present, but we'll
be sure to do so in future newsletters. A visit to the ASF Boards page will give you an
overview of all those who are currently helping with their time, energy, and
brilliance. If you'd like to join the team in any capacity, just let us know.
Accelerating Times Outline
We
begin with Community Interest and Selected Information Feeds, then
move to what we consider to be the five main futures dialogs of the pre-singularity
era:
Thanks
for this, Randy. I've written a brief three page essay at our general interest
Acceleration Watch site, Social Backlash to the Singularity
Hypothesis, that considers these issues in a first pass, and explains
why I think they will be a lot less worrisome than one might initially think.
Not just for the next two decades of still-relatively-slow acceleration, which
is an easier case to make, but possibly even for the entire 20-140 year period
(depending on whose prediction you find most plausible) running up to our
transition to a human-surpassing technological intelligence network. Of course,
this is a very speculative subject, and we are still quite early in this dialog.
Your feedback is welcome.
3.
FuturePeople
Steve Thaler, Founder, Imagination Engines, Inc.
Here's a good Founder's
Interview, conducted
by transhumanist Sander Olsen. Steve is a former physicist and McDonnell
Douglas engineer turned A.I. startup creator. He is quite transhumanist in
his thinking, and has developed some very innovative neural networks theories
and solutions. He's also had several successful limited applications contracts
for his "Creativity Machine." Nevertheless, in my personal opinion, arrived
at simply by perusing his site (please feel free to form your own) he does
not seem to be anywhere close to creating an Autonomous Intelligence, or "World
Brain" as he seems to be presently claiming. Neither is he "singlehandedly"
doing this, a hubris for which I can imagine no valid defense in the modern
world. Expect a much more bottom up and collective process for that, possibly
involving the emergence of a genetic algorithm-type hardware description language
circa 2020, one employed by many tens of thousands of people in multiple industries
for decades, one that will likely need to be developmentally linked to very
large, very redundant hardware-based neural net-like architectures in the
decades ahead.
Read this
excellent 1996 New Scientist article on Mr. Thaler, "The Creativity
Machine," by Bob Holmes. Just when you start to think Thaler is
yet another indiscriminate "A.I. believer," you see that he has
applied his nets to a large yet potentially manageable conceptualization space:
the discovery of novel ultrahard materials by simulation and training
with real world data from known ultrahard materials (diamond, boron nitride,
etc.) Furthermore, it is an inquiry in his existing area of expertise. Excellent!
Materials science is certainly the kind of exploration space where
today's primitive "innovation engines" (charitably named) might make some
truly valuable new discoveries, simply by looking a little deeper than humans
have before. I hope IEI benefits from that investigation, which can receive
a great boost from the amazing natural efficiencies that have historically
emerged at small scales.
Interestingly, ANNs often use perturbation
processes to improve efficiency. Dr. Thaler believes that useful new ideas
"nucleate" out of the collective encoded wisdom of a net when it
is perturbed in special ways. He has built a defensive patent portfolio in
this area, and alleges that his patents demonstrate that he is the pioneer
in discovering regimes in which "synaptic perturbation" lead to
the generation of novel patterns, in vector completion and other areas.
Bart
Kosko at USC is another ANN pioneer, and a leading academic theorist
in noisy networks. He studies a process called "stochastic resonance (SR)"
(e.g., "stochastic" (random) small variations in the network lead to "resonance"
(convergence) on useful new patterns and efficiencies). To everyone's surprise,
neural nets just work better with mild "noisy" perturbations in either their
interconnects or the input data that they receive, or both.
This mildly counterintuitive effect may be
identical to the efficiency boost we all get when we study in a room that
has gentle background conversation, but no locally loud sources, like a coffeeshop.
Or consider this apparently related phenomenon: if you have a fan going
lightly in the background, you will likely notice you can work for longer
stretches than if it's absolutely quiet. Or if you occasionally wiggle your
legs/toes or rock very gently (think Bill Gates!) you can often concentrate
better for longer periods. Studies have been published showing SR effects
within a wide range of natural processes. It appears to be part of the "evolutionary"
process of evolutionary development of new complexity.
Danny Hillis on "Richard Feynman and
the Connection Machine." Longnow.org
A beautiful, humanizing account of Hillis
and Richard Feynman's work on the massively parallel, 64,000 processor
Connection Machine (CM-1) at Thinking Machines, Inc. in the 1980's. Discusses
elegant ideas in digital physics (cellular automata models of the universe),
quantum chromodynamics, neural nets, and the trials of building a truly pioneering
parallel computer. In closing, Hillis shows Feynman's strong sense of his
informational immortality, via collective communication of his best ideas
to other people. In this sense he demonstrated the essence of the teacher
in all of us.
The article ends with the amazing quotation: "When you get as old as I am, you start to realize that you've told
most of the good stuff you know to other people anyway." May we all live so
intelligently and fearlessly! Thanks to Shawn Murphy.
Alex
Lightman on 4G, Speculist.com, 8.13.03
Fascinating singularity-aware interview
exploring Alex Lightman's call for a world with 6 Billion informed
and unwired human beings. He is a true visionary, able to see Mt. Fuji when
most of the telecom and political world remains mired in the swamps of short-term
interests. He pulls no punches here—one can learn a lot about the roadblocks
to technology diffusion by considering the way spectrum and standards have
been handled in this country. Keep leading the way for us, Alex!
4. Futurist Portals and Organizations
Global
Vision, Communicating Sustainability
An NGO Sponsored by
UNICEF, UNDP, UNESCO, and WHO. They have a number of worthy films in development,
such as Ecology of Mind
(after the visionary Gregory Bateson), and the "audience-designed"
Global Vision, The Movie.
They suffer from the common environmentalist shortcomings, seeing the future
in grade-school terms, as some kind of test that we might fail, with terrible
retribution in store if we don't change our evil ways (a theme as old as religion,
and of course occasionally quite helpful). But if they want to present a balanced
treatment, Global Vision should be documenting just how fast we are
learning to change our ways, to become ethical and sustainable, and they should
project the consequences of our accelerated learning and adaptability into
the future.
Seeing Philip Noyce's true-story movie
Rabbit-Proof
Fence, 2002 was the first time I learned of the forced separation
and first world acculturation that the Australians did to Aboriginal half-breed
children from the 1930's to 1970. This was a sad story, but what seems most
interesting today is our foreknowledge that this dysfunctional system had
to end, even as it was beginning. The tale fits so neatly with all the other
cultural learning patterns that were occurring all across the planet
during the late 20th century. Few people tell these stories of
collective healing, as they don't sell well to a fear-motivated populace.
The lessons are many, and they have occurred
on the most epic scales yet witnessed by civilization. In probably the prime
example, Zbigniew Brzezinsky, in Out of Control,
1993, tells us that Communist oppression killed at least 60 million people
between 1917 and its collapse in the late 1980's. One gets an overwhelming
sense of sadness and shame for our species on discovering the true
extent of this horror, numerically the single worst human catastrophe of
the 20th century.
Yet perhaps the second most
powerful insight for the student of Soviet history is just how impressive
it is that this vast social system, with such incredible momentum behind it,
was able to collapse in on itself, with little outside pressure, in a period
as short as 70 years. It is no wonder that the Former Soviet Union's population
is presently shrinking, via emigration and lack of new births, at the greatest
rate of any major geographic area on the planet. We can expect that to continue
for decades, as the effects and cultural penalties of this learning process
make themselves felt in the generation to come. A return anywhere on our planet
to that scale of oppression is now as impossible as, for example, a return
to institutionalized slavery, the scourge of the 19th century.
(Fourth world still excepted, to the first world's continuing discredit).
Cultural learning is a profound and unstoppable force! Thanks to Michael
Shields.
Innovation
Watch, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
David Forrest's very thoughtful, future-aware
multidisciplinary website, covering trends in innovation, science, technology,
business, society, the environment, and the future. This broad based, big
picture thinking is exactly what ASF is striving to do, with our own prime
focus being multidisciplinary trends in accelerating change, while
David's is innovation. Clearly there are excellent synergies between
our two missions! David has recently joined ASF's advisory board (thank you),
and we will endeavor to collaborate with Innovation Watch in coming years.
I hope you will peruse his future-aware
site and subscribe to his biweekly newsletter, a valuable
scanning source.
Philosophical and Social Dimensions
of Nanoscale Research, University of South Carolina College of Liberal
Arts, Nanoscale Interdisciplinary Research Team (NIRT)
A new interdisciplinary organization
with a four year NNI grant to study the social, political, public relations,
and potential risk areas for nanotechnology in coming years. They'll be having
regular conferences,
too, so check their site for updates. Philosophy, history of science, and
more than ten other departments are represented here. This effort provides
more evidence that we are learning to carefully consider the ethical issues
of our intelligent systems long before they even become real issues in
application. Humanity is developing a forebrain, and our human cultural-technological
immune system is alive and healthy in 2003.
Worldometers,
"Global Simulation Workshop"
Quick
caricatures of change in a variety of world indicators. Definitely worth a
browse. Under "Economy and
Government," note that number of computers sold annually so far is almost
three times the number of automobiles, but still slightly below the number
of bicycles. It's a safe bet that is going to change!
Under
"Energy",
note that incident solar creates 2,700 billion tons of coal-equivalent
energy. There's a hidden market. Oil consumption is a modest 4.3
billion tons. Puts our energy-plentiful planet in the proper perspective,
I think.
Finally,
note that "World Population"
is still below 6.3 billion, and leveling off fast. Give us technology, and
we stop reproducing. Give us A.I., and we upload? A
planetary sociotechnological contraceptive is apparently being constructed.
Thanks to Mila Golynskaia.
CIA
World Factbook, 2002
Your tax dollars have built this valuable
compendium of world intelligence, truly excellent for foreign
country data surfing. Unfortunately, some entries are incomplete. Cuba, for
example, has nothing listed under political pressure groups. That seems a
bit understated. The site is slow and search function is buggy. Perhaps they'll
come out with a spyware-equipped version that runs better. :)
Thanks to Chris Phoenix.
Tomorrow's World, Best Inventions Section,
2002
This BBCi-affiliated website has as
very Popular Mechanics/Popular Science feel to it, highlighting some
of the best inventions in Britain each year. Interestingly, they have special
award categories for individual inventors and young inventors,
championing both of these too-often neglected sources of innovation. We need
more of that in U.S. culture!
